Jim Messina — Democratic Strategist / Former Deputy Chief of Staff to Obama (2 trade ideas)

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Date Ticker Direction Thesis Source
Feb 18, 2026
ENERGY
WATCH Messina states that "Donald Trump's numbers are really bad in Texas" and that if the GOP primary produces a weak candidate (Paxton), the state is "in play" for Democrats. Texas is the heart of the US energy industry. While a Democratic flip is historically unlikely (as Messina admits), the mere narrative of Texas becoming a swing state introduces "Tail Risk" regarding state-level regulation and taxation on Oil & Gas producers, who traditionally rely on a stable GOP regulatory environment in the state. Monitor Texas polling data. A competitive race introduces volatility to Texas-heavy energy names. Democrats have not won Texas since 1994; this may be purely aspirational political rhetoric with no real threat to the status quo. Bloomberg Markets
Could Texas Be In Play For Democrats During t...
Feb 18, 2026
US CONSUMER /ECONOMY
WATCH Messina explicitly states, "This is an affordability election... That's the only issue that matters for Democrats right now." He notes voters are hyper-focused on costs. When political strategists pivot 100% of their messaging to "affordability," it is a lagging indicator that the US Consumer is under severe financial stress. It signals that inflation and cost-of-living are the dominant economic constraints, likely dampening discretionary spending power. Caution on Consumer Discretionary sectors as the political narrative confirms widespread wallet exhaustion. "Affordability" messaging could lead to government subsidies or stimulus, which would artificially boost consumer spending in the short term. Bloomberg Markets
Could Texas Be In Play For Democrats During t...